What Does Texas A&M to the SEC Mean for Everyone Else?
With the apparent movement from the ten-team Big XII to the SEC, Texas A&M is causing a stir in collegiate athletics. Assuming the SEC extends an invitation to the Aggies, this Quick6 is dedicated to a number of questions surrounding the move, the involved conferences and of course the Texas Longhorns.
1. Is this move good for Texas A&M?
In a word, absolutely. Texas A&M can compete at a high level in all sports right away. They probably won’t be winning any conference championships in the first 2 or 3 years, but it’ll be a step in the right direction. The SEC goes to and wins more BCS bowl games than any other conference. The last 5 national title games were won by SEC teams. Much of the prize money awarded to the conference is distributed amongst the conference members allowing A&M to build and develop even better facilities to bring in better recruits. Now instead of recruits looking to Texas, OU and sometimes Texas Tech as high profile nationally televised games when coming to A&M, they have LSU, Alabama, Auburn, probably a Florida or Tennessee along with keeping the Texas rivalry. More exposure will allow for better recruiting classes. Additionally, A&M will easily become the best (or a very close second to Vanderbilt) academic research institute in the SEC, providing more prestige and value to an already great university.
2. Is this a good move for the SEC?
I think so, but I’m not sure about this one. I think the SEC has been the most dominant force in the BCS era in college football. A&M doesn’t add anything immediately in my eyes for football. Down the road I could see them winning. They have firm footing in the state of Texas, one of the largest recruiting bases in college football and if they can keep all those Texas players from going to LSU or Alabama and even steal a couple from the Longhorns, then they can be a national powerhouse. If you remember, when the Big XII was formed, it was “The Big Eight and The Four We Hate” and turned out to be a conference dominated by UT and OU. A&M can compete in the SEC.
In both Men’s and Women’s basketball A&M will be near the top immediately and will compete for conference titles. Baseball will be able to compete eventually, the SEC is a strong baseball conference but don’t look to A&M to drop off here. They’ll be able to hold their own. In Track both the Aggie men and women have won three consecutive national titles so, of course, they’ll be fine.
My biggest concern, however, is the distribution of funds throughout the conference. Adding more teams (like the speculated A&M, Clemson, FSU and Missouri) means smaller pieces of the pie for everyone else. Though A&M brings in the Houston media market, LSU already had a good chunk of that and it’s not like A&M still won’t be competing with UTexas for media attention.
3. What does this mean for the BigXII?
First things first, I think the BigXII’s coddling of Texas has caused this rift and possibly their undoing. I understand that Texas is a national brand and brings quite a bit of prestige to the conference. But you can’t be surprised when teams like Colorado, Nebraska and now A&M and possibly Missouri want out. Texas has worked all of their contracts beautifully and allowed them the most control and money possible. That’s amazing and you have to give them credit for doing so. But in trying to keep a conference together, and relevant, you have to pass some of the milk and honey around. No, it’s not Texas’ fault that these teams leave, but they’re not trying that hard to keep them around either. If Texas’ goal is to go independent in all sports, then they’re doing fine. But they’re going to need that $300M from ESPN just to pay the salaries of the people scheduling those other sports. I think unless Texas decides to keep the BigXII together and bring in other teams like TCU, Houston, SMU, Arkansas then the conference will survive. If Texas feels the value is in the Pac-12 or going Independent, then the conference will fail.
Apparently, Texas has developed a list of possible replacements if A&M were to leave. Top of the list of names I’ve heard thrown around are TCU, Notre Dame, BYU and Arkansas. The only one of these that I can actually see moving to the Big XII is TCU but only after a couple of seasons in the Big East. TCU is already the best team in the Big East and they haven’t played a game yet. Since the Big East has an automatic BCS bowl bid, TCU will likely take a couple of big paydays before moving conferences. This will also allow them to see if the BigXII will actually survive so they don’t have to go back to the Big East or (if granted an Automatic BCS bid) the Mountain West with their tail between their legs. Notre Dame is the big name on the list. This has ZERO shot at reality. The Big Ten has been recruiting Notre Dame for years. There is no shot they want to leave the Big East for anyone other than the Big Ten, especially not to travel down to Texas every year. The only reason they’re even mentioned is because they could keep their TV rights. This is a complete fabrication by Texas fans trying to think of a big name splash they could bring in to trump this story otherwise. BYU just went independent and Arkansas isn’t leaving the land of Milk and Honey in the SEC to come play third fiddle in the BigXII.
4. Keeping the Thanksgiving game is a necessity, right?
Yes. Even if they’re in different conferences or different hemispheres this rivalry needs to stand. The biggest concern would be scheduling non-conference games that late in the season. Florida still plays Florida State and Notre Dame still plays USC. It has to stay.
5. What does this mean for the other conferences and the other teams in the Big XII?
Last year, Texas A&M held the key and kept the “super conferences” from forming. Well, I think that will fall in the lap of Texas this year. OU is tied directly to Texas. If Texas is able to get a big name school or two to join the BigXII then I don’t see much movement nationally. If Texas goes independent or to the PAC-12, then the four or five 16-team super conferences will form. OU going either west to the PAC-12 or east to the SEC if Texas goes independent. So we’ll have the PAC-16, Big 10 (w/ 16 teams), SEC (with 16 teams), the new ACC/BigEast and maybe the Mountain West gets a BCS bid. Likely the ACC/Big East will totally reform. Out will come two conferences, one with both basketball and football and one primarily basketball. Smaller conferences like Conference USA, SunBelt, MAC and the fledgling WAC will continue to cannibalize each other, but will likely get a big shot in the arm with a school like Iowa State, Texas Tech or Baylor being left without a dance partner.
6. So is this really all about the Longhorn Network?
No, I don’t think so. I think this is a combination of a lot of things. Yes, the LHN is a part but I think it’s more about the BigXII pandering to Texas. I think A&M is being proactive in seeing that Texas may decide to go independent in the coming years and this would all explode anyway. Then A&M at least would have a say in who else joins their conference. Additionally, if Texas doesn’t go independent this gives A&M more financial equity to develop newer and better facilities. Remember, the Big XII’s revenue sharing system does not equally distribute revenues amongst teams the way the SEC does. I think if Texas was looking to make this move instead of A&M, many people would be praising them by saying “Look at their forward thinking, look at everyone else getting left in the dust.” I personally, don’t see the Longhorn Network surviving as a premier channel without dual broadcasting rights to all or most football games and practices. I think the idea of the LHN is better than what is actually will be. That being said, if any university can pull it off, the University of Texas can. I just don’t see that being the only reason A&M is deciding to make this move. The combination of all these reasons, including the LHN, is the reason A&M is looking to leave. And I think this is the best move for them to get out of the shadow of the Longhorns.
One Drunken Prediction:
After a 6′er we say things we probably shouldn’t. This is no exception. My prediction is that Missouri, Kansas and Kansas State all leave the BigXII before 2013 and the Longhorns are “forced” to go independent. Big losers in the whole realignment are Iowa State, Baylor and Texas Tech. I think all 3 of those end up in non-automatic bid conferences like the Mountain West (unless the Mountain West then gets an automatic bid). Now we just need to see if the SEC actually extends an invitation to the SEC.
