March Madness & Busted Brackets
Most common water cooler question being asked lately: “How’s your bracket?”
Well, it sucks. But at least I’m still in the hunt. Northern Iowa may have ruined the majority of everyone elses’s brackets, but not mine. Of the 6 brackets I submitted, I had Kansas in all of my Final Fours but one, and that one I had them losing to Kansas State in the Elite Eight. But on the positive side, I didn’t pick them to win in a single bracket. Did I have some sort of statistical evidence that led me to believe they couldn’t win it all? Did I see some sort of chink in the armor? Did I use a psychic? No… well I did use a psychic, but that’s besides the point. It’s simple. I picked against them only because the odds were in my favor to not pick them.
Here’s why. Out of 90 brackets in one of my groups, 48 picked Kansas to win it all. Of those, remaining 25 picked Kentucky to win it all. So out of 65 possible teams, only 17 people picked someone other than KU and UK. Basically, you’re betting on everyone else other than those two teams. When two teams are that heavily favored in the tournament, the math supports picking the other teams. (The math supports it, even if the logic or the evidence doesn’t.) In the traditional format where later round choices are worth more, if Kansas were to win, the winning bracket will have to be much more correct to beat out the other 47 people. By picking Syracuse, West Virginia, Duke, Kansas St, or whomever, you’re competing against less people.
I can’t claim that I know what I am talking about. Just look at my bracket and know that, but Northern Iowa has helped prove me right this year. (One of the only times you’d ever see me root for NIU, because of the 2005 Texas State Playoff debacle) Sometimes I feel like the March Madness girl… other times I feel like I’m playing against the March Madness girl.
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