The Problem with Polls
There has been an interesting debate going on this year regarding the correct way to vote for teams in both of the respective college football polls, The AP and The Coaches Poll. One camp has argued that votes should encompass not only what a team has done this year, but also their expectations based upon previous year’s performance, recruiting class ranks, and program prestige. The other camp has argued that votes should be based solely upon what a team has accomplished this year. Both philosophies however are inherently flawed. Here are two examples why: Oklahoma and Miami:
Oklahoma –
The Sooners fall into the category of being highly ranked based upon their past. Oklahoma came into the season ranked in the top 5. Why? There are a few reasons. They returned a team featuring a Heisman winning quarterback that lost in the National Championship Game last year. Oklahoma is known for having a blistering defense year in and year out, and this year more of the same was expected. Aside from Texas and Oklahoma State, Oklahoma was thought to have an easy schedule this year. Year in and year out, Oklahoma has been a consistent powerhouse in college football. So how has it turned out for Oklahoma so far? 2-2 does not represent the powerhouse people were expecting. Now granted, they lost Sam Bradford the first game of the season. However, their defense was unable to hold BYU resulting in an opening day loss. Then Oklahoma turned around and had impressive shutouts against Idaho State and Tulsa. What was the result? Well, the AP and the Coaches thought well enough of Oklahoma after their two blowouts against less than stellar teams to put them back up to #8 in the country. They were forgiven for their loss against BYU whom it would seem everyone had already forgotten was blown out by Florida State. Oklahoma took their #8 ranking on the road to Miami last week where they left with their tail between their legs having lost 21-20. Now they sit around 20 in both polls. Are they even deserving of that? Their only victories this year are against non-BCS schools. Were it not for their history as a program, it would be hard to believe that they would still be ranked in the top 25. Haven’t the seasons that South Carolina, Notre Dame, and Stanford have had been more impressive so far this year.
Miami -
The Hurricanes fall into the category of being highly ranked based upon what they have accomplished this year. Miami began the year unranked. They rattled off quick victories against ranked opponents Florida State and Georgia Tech. After their victory over the Yellow Jackets, some were calling for Miami to be in the top 5. They went into Blacksburg, VA in week 3, and The Hurricanes were throttled by a lower ranked Virginia Tech team. They followed that loss by beating Oklahoma last week and are now sitting at #11 in both polls. The logic behind placing them that high based upon their results this year though is flawed. The Pollsters put Miami in the top 10 after week 2 because they had just defeated a ranked Florida State and Georgia Tech. However, why were these two teams ranked to begin with? It was because of expectations based upon previous years. Florida State and Georgia Tech have both been less than stellar this year, but because they were ranked to start off the year people have just assumed that Miami beat two quality teams. The only impressive team that Miami has faced this year, Virginia Tech, wiped them off the field. Pollsters have moved The Hurricanes right back up the polls based upon their victory over Oklahoma last week. However, that victory only looks impressive when you think of an Oklahoma team of years past. Oklahoma this year has been very lack luster, and Miami beat them by only one point. Oklahoma didn’t even have their starting quarterback. It would seem that many of the undefeated teams ranked behind Miami are more deserving of being #11 than The Hurricanes are.
This seems to be quite the dilemma. If you rank a team based upon expectations, it isn’t really an accurate ranking if they can’t meet those expectations. On the flip side, ranking a team based upon this year’s results is flawed, because when you look at the rankings of the teams they are defeating, those rankings are based upon expectations from previous years. So how do you fix it? I see two options. One option is to get rid of rankings all together. However, this assumes a playoff system which is not likely to happen at this point. The second option is to release the polls later in the year. I do not know if it will ever be possible to get the bias out of the polls. Pollsters will always have preconceived notions about how good a team should be. However, if they were to wait until the 8th week of the season to release the polls, there would be a much better understanding at that point of which teams were good, and which teams were just pretenders. I know that releasing the polls before the season even starts is great for media hype. It gets people talking about teams and games right off the bat. The problem though is that it creates a situation where it can become very difficult for teams to move up to the top if they started at the bottom, it has no basis on real world results, and it rewards team for losing early as opposed to later in the season. College Football is arguably the greatest sport there is. However, the system it uses for ranking teams is inherently flawed regardless of what it is based upon when done early in the season. The only way the polls will ever make sense is to wait to release them until a large enough body of work has been performed to allow for proper judgment.
